Every April, the hot seat watch begins. By May, the market will have already moved sharply. Aaron Boone is now the odds-on favorite to be the first manager dismissed, the Mets are riding a 12-game losing streak, and Houston is fighting through a pitching staff that looks more like a triage unit than a rotation.
Here is a full breakdown of current MLB first manager fired odds, updated records, and the situations driving each number.
First MLB Manager Fired Odds 2026
| Manager | Team | Record | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Mendoza | New York Mets | 8-16 | +300 |
| Joe Espada | Houston Astros | 10-16 | +500 |
| John Schneider | Toronto Blue Jays | 10-14 | +500 |
| Rob Thomson | Philadelphia Phillies | 8-16 | +700 |
| Alex Cora | Boston Red Sox | 9-15 | +1000 |
| Matt Quatraro | Kansas City Royals | 8-17 | +1100 |
| Dan Wilson | Seattle Mariners | 11-15 | +1200 |
Odds sourced from aggregator tracking as of April 22-23, 2026. Verify current lines before betting.
Manager Breakdowns
Carlos Mendoza, New York Mets (+300)
Mendoza is managing through a nightmare. The Mets are 8-16 and just stretched their losing streak to 12 games, sitting at the bottom of the NL East. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic named Mendoza as one of three managers on the hot seat entering late April. The roster is banged up and the lineup construction has been questioned, but in New York, context rarely softens the pressure.
The one thing keeping Mendoza employed is GM David Stearns, who went public this week: “I think Mendy is doing a really good job.” Stearns added that he does not anticipate a change before the team’s next homestand. That quote buys runway. At +400, the market is not fully convinced.
Why he survives: Stearns’ endorsement carries real weight. A mid-April firing signals organizational panic, which front offices with expensive rosters tend to avoid.
Joe Espada, Houston Astros (+500)
The Astros are 10-16 and sitting at the bottom of the AL West. The rotation is a wreck. Hunter Brown, Tatsuya Imai, and Josh Hader are all on the IL, and the team is posting a 5.93 ERA. Espada is in his second full season managing Houston and has been handed a progressively harder job as the core ages and the injury list grows.
Rosenthal flagged Espada alongside Mendoza in his hot seat report. If the pitchers come back and the team still does not move, the front office runs out of reasons to stay patient.
Why he survives: Firing a manager while three of your best pitchers are hurt is a difficult sell internally. The case against Espada gets stronger when the roster is healthy.
John Schneider, Toronto Blue Jays (+500)
The Blue Jays are 10-14 and have not given any reason for optimism. Toronto came into 2026 as a real contender, though injuries have derailed them early on. No public pressure from the front office yet, but the market at +500 reflects a short runway if this team keeps treading water.
Why he survives: Toronto has not made any noise suggesting a change is coming. The number is more about proximity to the number than any imminent action.
Rob Thomson, Philadelphia Phillies (+700)
Thomson’s odds were shorter a week ago. The Phillies are 8-16 and have dropped eight straight, a brutal stretch for a team with genuine World Series expectations. But Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski went public on April 22 and cut off the speculation: “Rob Thomson’s been a good manager for us since 2022. We always look at everything that’s taking place, but no.” That kind of public endorsement adds runway fast.
The Phillies’ losing streak looks like a roster problem more than a managerial one. Until Dombrowski walks that statement back, a firing in April feels like a long shot.
Why he survives: Dombrowski’s quote is the clearest front office backing on this entire list. The odds should drift longer if the team starts winning.
Alex Cora, Boston Red Sox (+1000)
Cora is in year two of a three-year, $21.75 million contract, and the Red Sox are 9-15. Rosenthal’s reporting put a midseason firing in “unlikely” territory, and the contract makes an early move expensive. Boston is hitting .229 as a team and ranks last in home runs, but the front office has not shown urgency about making a change at the top.
Why he survives: The contract is a financial deterrent. The Red Sox would have to write a significant check to fire a manager this early, and they have not signaled they are close to that decision.
Matt Quatraro, Kansas City Royals (+1100)
The Royals are 8-17 and at the bottom of the AL Central. Kansas City overperformed in 2025, and that goodwill carried into this season, but 2026 has not backed it up so far. No credible reporting has linked the front office to a managerial change. The +1100 number reflects a situation that could turn bad, not one that has already.
Why he survives: The goodwill from last year is real. Kansas City is not a win-now market, which keeps the pressure threshold lower than it would be elsewhere.
When Do MLB Managers Actually Get Fired?
Mid-April firings happen, but they are rare. The more common windows:
30-40 games in (late April/early May). Front offices start doing math. This is the earliest realistic window for a “we need to make a change now” decision on a contending roster.
At the All-Star break. The most common mid-season exit point. Gives the organization a clean break and a fresh narrative for the second half.
After a prolonged losing streak. A 10-game skid accelerates everything regardless of timing. The Mets are in exactly that spot right now.
September, if the team is out of the race. Some managers get a quiet exit late in the year so the announcement does not have to come in October.
The single biggest indicator is not the record. It is whether the front office stops publicly backing the manager. Once a GM goes quiet on that question, the clock usually starts.
Which Managers Are Safe in 2026
- Dave Roberts, Los Angeles Dodgers: Coming off a 2025 World Series title, Roberts is untouchable. The organization has given him every tool, and he has delivered.
- Walt Weiss, Atlanta Braves: Weiss took over from Snitker this offseason and has already silenced early doubters. The Braves do not make reactive moves, and Weiss has too much front office backing to be in any short-term danger.
- Kevin Cash, Tampa Bay Rays: Cash has built a culture and a system. The Rays do not panic.
- Derek Shelton, Minnesota Twins: Hired this offseason after Rocco Baldelli was let go following a 70-92 finish in 2025. Shelton is too new to be on any hot seat. The organization will give him a full year to build.
- Craig Stammen, San Diego Padres: San Diego is in a building year. There are no expectations in place that would trigger an early managerial change.
Frequently Asked Questions
When the firing is official. If a manager is placed on administrative leave or takes a leave of absence without a formal firing, most books hold the bet open until a replacement is named. Check your book’s specific rules before betting.
Most books void these bets on a voluntary departure. The market is specifically for firings. A resignation typically results in a refund.
Front offices need enough of a sample to justify the move internally. 20 games isn’t usually enough. At 30 to 35 games, the record is harder to explain away, and the math on what the season will look like becomes clearer. That’s when decisions get made.
More than most people give it credit for. Over 15 to 20 games, it’s noisy, but it’s still more predictive than record alone. A team allowing 5.4 runs a game is telling you something real about the roster. The record catches up eventually.
The market is dark right now, the Mets recently lost 12 straight, and the Phillies are quietly playing like a last-place team. Mendoza is the chalk on the hot seat. Thomson at +1000 is the value. When lines go live, those are the two spots to attack first.
