The 2026 AL Cy Young race looked like a two-horse race on Opening Day. Then Garrett Crochet blew up and hit the IL with shoulder inflammation. Then Tarik Skubal, the two-time defending AL winner and the prohibitive favorite, had loose bodies removed from his throwing elbow and disappeared for months. The race cracked wide open before May was half over.
The NL has been a lot calmer, but a 22-year-old from Milwaukee just became the first pitcher to 100 strikeouts this season, and he’s throwing 100+ mph on more than half his pitches. That’s not a quiet race anymore, either.
Here’s where the Cy Young odds stand at the end of May, who we’re backing with real money, and which names you should be watching for value as the summer heats up.
2026 AL Cy Young Odds
| Pitcher | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Schlittler | New York Yankees | +125 |
| Jacob deGrom | Texas Rangers | +400 |
| Dylan Cease | Toronto Blue Jays | +500 |
| Gavin Williams | Cleveland Guardians | 17-1 |
| Jose Soriano | Los Angeles Angels | 22-1 |
| Davis Martin | Chicago White Sox | 30-1 |
| Shane McClanahan | Tampa Bay Rays | 35-1 |
| Kevin Gausman | Toronto Blue Jays | 35-1 |
| Drew Rasmussen | Tampa Bay Rays | 35-1 |
| Bryan Woo | Seattle Mariners | 40-1 |
Cam Schlittler is the chalk at +125, and the numbers back it up. The 25-year-old Yankees righty is 6-2 with a 1.50 ERA, 75 strikeouts, and a 0.86 WHIP across roughly 66 innings. His 1.80 FIP says the ERA is real, not lucky. He became the first pitcher since Walter Johnson in 1913 to post 50+ strikeouts, fewer than 10 walks, no more than one homer allowed, and a sub-1.50 ERA in his first nine starts. That company is not a small thing.
But +125 on a futures bet that doesn’t resolve until November? You’re barely getting your money back — the implied probability on that number is 44%, meaning the market already thinks Schlittler wins nearly half the time. One elbow scare, one dead-arm stretch, and that +125 ticket is cooked before the All-Star break. That’s the play if you think Schlittler is untouchable for another four months, but at this price you’re getting no margin for error on a rookie with 66 big-league innings.
Our AL Cy Young Bet: Jacob deGrom +400
Jacob deGrom at +400 is where the value is in the AL.
He’s 3-2 with a 2.62 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP, and those aren’t fluky numbers. The guy is striking out batters at an elite rate with 57 punchouts and a 0.92 WHIP through his starts. When healthy, deGrom is arguably the best pitcher alive. He has two Cy Youngs, back-to-back in 2018 and 2019, plus a second-place finish and a year where he had a 1.08 ERA across 92 innings before injuries wiped out his season. The talent ceiling is as high as anyone in baseball.
The knock on deGrom is that he’s a health bet, full stop. He’s 38 years old and has thrown meaningful innings in maybe two seasons over the last five years. That’s a real risk. But he’s healthy right now, pitching at a Cy Young level right now, and paying 4x while the alternative is a barely-profitable +125. If deGrom makes 28 starts and pitches like this, he wins the award. At +400 vs. +125 on Schlittler, you’re getting paid four times more to take the same roster spot in your futures book. That’s what value betting looks like in a futures market.
We’re taking deGrom at +400. Small unit, health caveat acknowledged.
2026 NL Cy Young Odds
| Pitcher | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Sanchez | Philadelphia Phillies | +200 |
| Jacob Misiorowski | Milwaukee Brewers | +370 |
| Paul Skenes | Pittsburgh Pirates | +400 |
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | +600 |
| Chris Sale | Atlanta Braves | +650 |
| Chase Burns | Cincinnati Reds | 12-1 |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Los Angeles Dodgers | 30-1 |
| Zack Wheeler | Philadelphia Phillies | 40-1 |
| Kyle Harrison | Milwaukee Brewers | 45-1 |
| Mason Miller | San Diego Padres | 50-1 |
Cristopher Sanchez is the NL favorite at +200, and he’s earning it. The Phillies lefty is 5-2 with a 1.62 ERA, 86 strikeouts, and a 1.15 WHIP across 72.1 innings. In his most recent start, he went nine innings and struck out 13 Pirates without giving up a run. That was his second career complete-game shutout, and his third straight start in May going at least seven innings without allowing a run. He’s been the most consistent pitcher in the NL this season, and the market knows it.
Paul Skenes sits at +400 after a rougher stretch than his preseason odds predicted. He’s at a 3.27 ERA, which is perfectly fine pitching, but it’s not the dominant Skenes we saw win the Cy Young last year. He’s still a legitimate threat, especially if he finds his 2025 form, but he’s not the best pitcher in the NL right now and his current number reflects that.
Shohei Ohtani at +600 is the wild card. He’s been posting a sub-1.00 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP through seven starts. The two-way angle is fascinating but voters have traditionally rewarded starters with full workloads, and Ohtani’s total innings may fall short of the 170-plus most Cy Young winners log.
Our NL Cy Young Bet: Jacob Misiorowski +370
Jacob Misiorowski at +370 is the best value on the NL board.
The Brewers righty has a 1.83 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and 100 strikeouts through roughly 64 innings. He became the first pitcher in MLB to hit 100 strikeouts this season, doing it on Memorial Day while throwing 57 of his 96 pitches at 100 mph or faster – the most 100-mph pitches in a single game since pitch tracking began in 2008. He had a streak of 29.1 consecutive scoreless innings that just ended. His 49:6 K-to-BB ratio in May alone is elite.
The case against him is that voters tend to favor established names, especially with Paul Skenes and Sanchez on the board. But Misiorowski is 22 years old, leading the NL in strikeouts, and posting metrics that look like what you’d submit in a video game. Sanchez is the safer bet at +200, but you’re paying nearly double for a pitcher who has been only slightly better on paper. At +370, you’re getting meaningful value on a guy who is objectively one of the three best pitchers in the NL right now, leading MLB in strikeouts, with a velocity profile that suggests the strikeout rate stays elite all year.
Take Misiorowski at +370 over Sanchez at +200. The 85-cent difference in payout is too large to ignore when the statistical gap between them is this small.
Dark Horse Worth a Sprinkle
Chase Burns (CIN) at 12-1 is worth a small stake if you want a shot at a big payday. The Reds righty led the NL in ERA a year ago and has the swing-and-miss stuff to put together a monster second half. If Cincinnati makes any noise in the World Series odds conversation by August, Burns will be right there as the engine. He’s at 12-1 right now with better return-to-odds value than anyone in the top five. A quarter-unit at 12-1 is a cheap ticket on a pitcher who already showed he can win this thing.
How Cy Young Voting Works
The Baseball Writers’ Association of America votes before the postseason, then announces winners in November. Writers from each league rank their top five candidates, and points are distributed 7-4-3-2-1. ERA and WAR are the two stats that move voters most. Innings pitched matters because voters reward durability heavily, which is why Ohtani’s total workload will be worth watching and why a healthy-all-year deGrom or Misiorowski who logs 180+ innings becomes a near-lock for top consideration.
Frequently Asked Questions
Tarik Skubal won the AL award for the second consecutive year, and Paul Skenes won the NL award in his first full season. Skubal was attempting to become the first three-time AL winner since Randy Johnson’s dynasty run from 1995 to 1999 before elbow surgery ended his 2026 campaign.
Roger Clemens holds the record with seven. Randy Johnson won five, including four straight from 1999 to 2002. Steve Carlton, Greg Maddux, and Tom Seaver each won four. On the current active leaderboard, Jacob deGrom has two, which is part of what makes him such an interesting bet at +400 — he’s done this before.
It’s never happened. Ohtani is the only player in history to realistically threaten both awards in the same season. The main obstacle is innings; most Cy Young winners log 170 or more starts, and Ohtani’s two-way workload will likely keep him short of that threshold even if his ERA stays elite through October.
It has happened once since 1980: Eric Gagne with the Dodgers in 2003. Voters heavily favor starting pitchers with full workloads, and the BBWAA has shown almost no appetite to break that pattern since. Mason Miller would need a historically absurd campaign to overcome two-plus decades of institutional bias. The number to watch: no closer since Gagne has come close to 100 innings, which is the invisible floor most voters use.
He’s worth a look. The Padres closer has converted all 16 save opportunities, posted a sub-1.00 ERA, and struck out 47 in 23 appearances. The innings ceiling will likely keep him out of serious contention, but if his numbers stay absurd through August the conversation gets loud fast. Looking for more MLB prop bets on individual players this season? We’ve got you covered.
The BBWAA votes before the postseason begins each fall. Winners are typically announced in early November, shortly after the World Series ends, with the AL and NL winners revealed on consecutive days.
