Every year, the home run leader market makes fools out of people who bet on the favorites. The preseason board was built around Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. Through 33 games, Judge is tied for second, Ohtani has fallen completely off the pace, and a White Sox first baseman most bettors couldn’t name a month ago is sitting alone at the top of the leaderboard.
Here’s the full breakdown of where the odds stand now, what the Statcast and park factor data say, and where the remaining value is.
The Full 2026 MLB Home Run Leader Odds Board
The board looks nothing like it did in April. Judge has compressed from +350 to -115. Ohtani has cratered from +400 to +2500. Two players who weren’t on the original board at all, Ben Rice and Munetaka Murakami, are now legitimate threats.
| Player | BetMGM Odds |
|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | -115 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | +600 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | +600 |
| Munetaka Murakami (CHW) | +700 |
| James Wood (WSN) | +800 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | +1600 |
| Mike Trout (LAA) | +1800 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | +2000 |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | +2500 |
| Nick Kurtz (ATH) | +2500 |
| Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | +2500 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | +4000 |
| Pete Alonso (BAL) | +15000 |
Odds via BetMGM as of May 1, 2026. Lines move fast in a competitive race — shop around before you bet, and check current prices at your book. For a framework on finding value in spots like this, our MLB underdog betting strategy breaks down exactly why.
Aaron Judge Is Now -115, and That’s the Problem
When we first published this page, Judge was +350. He’s now -115 after tying for second in the league with 12 home runs through 33 games. The underlying metrics remain elite: 27.5% barrel rate, 52.9% hard-hit rate, and a 1.018 OPS that ranks fifth in baseball. The case for Judge is real. He’s led the league in home runs three times, including back-to-back in 2024 and 2025, and he’s playing at the exact pace that produced those results.
The problem is the price. At -115, you’re laying juice on a 162-game race where a two-week slump, a minor injury, or a hot month from Murakami or Alvarez wipes out your position. You need Judge to win outright, not just be great. The market has already priced in his greatness. There’s no value left at this number.
Munetaka Murakami Leads the League, and Nobody Is Talking About It
Murakami leads all of Major League Baseball with 13 home runs through 33 games. His AB/HR rate of 8.7 is the best in baseball. His slugging percentage ranks in the top 10. And he’s priced at +700.
The skepticism is understandable. He’s playing in a thin White Sox lineup that doesn’t protect him, which means he’ll see more tough at-bats than Judge or Alvarez. He also had an uneven first full MLB season before this one. But the power is real, and +700 on the current league leader is a price the market hasn’t fully caught up to yet.
This is the most interesting number on the board right now.
Yordan Alvarez at +600: The Original Call Is Paying Off
When we first published this page, Alvarez was +1600 and we called him the most interesting number on the board. He’s now tied for second in the league with 12 home runs and has compressed all the way to +600. His production through 33 games has been the best in baseball by nearly every measure: he leads MLB in OBP (.446), total bases (87), runs created (41), and times on base (66). His OPS+ of 216 ranks second in the league behind only Ben Rice.
His Statcast profile has only gotten stronger since April. His xwOBA sits at .535, his barrel rate at 21.1%, and he’s making hard contact at an elite rate with no signs of slowing down. The price compressed exactly as it should have. Fresh money at +600 is still worth it given where he sits in the race.
Kyle Schwarber at +600 Is Worth a Look
Schwarber has 11 home runs through 33 games and 66 total bases, matching James Wood and trailing only the top three. He’s always been a volume power hitter. The strikeouts are part of the profile. Citizens Bank Park remains one of the better home run environments in the National League. At +600, tied with Alvarez, Schwarber is the right call if you want NL exposure in this market. He’s one hot week away from leading the league.
Fade Cal Raleigh, the Data Hasn’t Changed
Raleigh led the league in home runs a season ago, and the market has him at +4000, down from the +9500 we originally saw. That compression is a mistake. The 2026 data continues to confirm what the underlying metrics were already showing: his barrel rate has dropped meaningfully from his 2025 peak, and the production simply isn’t there. He’s nowhere near the leaders. This is still a fade.
Park Factors Matter and Nobody Is Talking About Them
The home ballpark each player plays in is one of the biggest variables in this bet, yet it barely gets mentioned. For a deeper breakdown of why this matters for individual bets, read our piece on how ballpark factors impact MLB props.
Here’s how the parks shake out for the current leaders, using FanGraphs park factor data:
- Yankee Stadium plays as one of the best home run parks in the league. The short porch in right is a real factor for left-handed hitters, and it benefits both Judge and Rice.
- Daikin Park (Houston) is essentially neutral on home runs. What Alvarez is doing comes entirely from his bat. That’s an argument for his production being real rather than park-driven.
- Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia) grades as a slightly above-average home run environment, which adds a marginal edge to Schwarber’s case.
- Guaranteed Rate Field (Chicago) is a moderate hitter’s park. It won’t fully explain Murakami’s output, but it doesn’t hurt him either.
When you factor in the park data, Alvarez and Murakami have the strongest fundamental cases among the non-Judge options. Their production is coming from contact quality, not ballpark inflation.
The Long Shots Worth a Small Position
James Wood (+800): Wood has 10 home runs, 31 walks (third in MLB), and 66 total bases. He compressed from +3000 to +800 for good reason. The entry price is gone, but his production is real. If you got him early, hold.
Ben Rice (+2500): Rice leads all of baseball with a 1.169 OPS and has 11 home runs while batting in the most dangerous lineup in the sport. He’s a relatively new name on this board, and the +2500 price still reflects some uncertainty about whether he can sustain it. A small position is worth taking. He’s one of the four or five players actually in this race.
Mike Trout (+1800): Trout has 10 home runs, a .426 OBP, and 32 walks. He’s playing in his best sustained stretch of health in years. A small position still makes sense. The risk is that it’s Trout after 34, and we’ve seen this movie before.
Nick Kurtz (+2500): Kurtz leads the entire league in walks (34) and has real underlying power. He’s not in the top tier of the HR race yet, but his patience at the plate suggests the power will keep playing. Small position, patient hold.
Our Best Bets for the 2026 MLB Home Run Leader
Here’s exactly how we’re playing it. If you want to size these bets precisely, run them through our Kelly Criterion Calculator before placing.
- Munetaka Murakami +700: 1 unit. Leads the league. Best AB/HR rate in baseball. The market hasn’t caught up to the fact that he’s actually winning this thing right now.
- Yordan Alvarez +600: 0.75 units. Second in home runs, first in total bases, OBP, and runs created. Best contact quality in the field. If you got him at +1600, this is a strong hold. Fresh money at +600 is still worth it given where he sits.
- Ben Rice +2500: 0.25 units. Best OPS in baseball, 11 home runs, Yankees lineup. The price is too long for a player currently fourth in the actual standings.
- Mike Trout +1800: 0.15 units. Small position on a healthy Trout is still worth something.
We’re passing on Judge at -115. We’re fading Raleigh. Ohtani at +2500 is a pass. Too far behind and too much plate appearance uncertainty with the pitching workload. Wood at +800 had its moment at +3000. The entry price is gone.
